Clayton Kershaw has a bit of a home run problem this season. (via Michelle Jay)
Clayton Kershaw is not normal.
I’ve said it before. I wasn’t the first. I won’t be the last. How many more epic poems can one sing about the greatest left-handed pitcher of his generation, and perhaps one of the two or three greatest southpaws of all time?
As the above-linked piece should demonstrate, his greatness is deeply, intensely personal for me. Which is what has made his 2017 campaign such a maddening, existentially violent experience. You see, Kershaw has been the same fire-breathing dragon he’s always been. (Sit down, Devenski.) Except for one small detail: the home runs.
In the six full seasons since 2011 where just about everybody agrees Kershaw has been the best pitcher on the planet, Kershaw has allowed 0.52 home runs per nine innings, the lowest rate among all starters in that timeframe. If a hitter is lucky enough to make contact on Kershaw, the ball usually goes into the ground or straight up in the air.
Indeed, even when the ball does go over the fence, Kershaw somehow limits the damage. If we consider the expected production on home runs based on exit velocity and launch angle, Kershaw’s 2016 xwOBA allowed on home runs was 1.144 last season, 10th-lowest among starters. In other words, hitters literally ran into one when they got it out of the park against Kershaw.
This season, it’s different. Kershaw allowed 18 home runs before the All-Star break. His previous career high was 16 in all of 2012. They aren’t cheap shots this year, either. The league average xwOBA allowed on home runs so far in 2017 is 1.305. Kershaw has allowed a 1.520 figure, one of the worst in baseball.
Kershaw isn’t getting any different results, though. His sterling strikeout and walk rates are in keeping with his last three full seasons. His 54 DRA- is only one point higher than his Cy Young and MVP campaign in 2014. On contact, his xwOBA allowed on all non-home run plays is .210, second only to Max Scherzer. Last season, it was .210. The year before that, it was .211.
Kershaw has literally been the same pitcher he’s always been, except on home runs. Why is that? Why have Kershaw’s mistakes been so thoroughly punished, when he doesn’t appear to be making that many more mistakes than any other season? I want to look at all 18 home runs he’s given up, to see if we can draw any conclusions about the pitcher Kershaw currently is, and if that’s likely to continue post-All-Star break.
1. Monday, April 3, vs. San Diego Padres
Ryan Schimpf
Top of the 7th, 0 on, 2 out, 0-0
Four-Seam Fastball
Exit Velocity: 108 mph
Launch Angle: 32 degrees
Until Schimpf dug into the batter’s box, Kershaw had been cruising, tossing one-hit ball with seven strikeouts and no walks. He was doing some arm slot experiments carried over from his post-injury return in 2016. Otherwise, he was the same old dominant Kershaw.
Then he hung a fastball in the upper part of the zone. To a lefty. As you can see from Grandal’s glove, he wanted that fastball down. Instead, it climbed up letter high, into fly ball junky Schimpf’s happy zone.
Here, it’s a location problem. Schimpf jumped on the first pitch of the at-bat, a level of aggressiveness not commonly seen against Kershaw. It was a no-doubter, too.
2. Saturday, April 8, @ Colorado Rockies
Nolan Arenado
Bottom of the 1st, 0 on, 2 out, 2-2
Curveball
EV: 103.7 mph
LA: 23.1 degrees
Arenado is a smart hitter. He was hitting in Coors Field. Nobody could be upset with Kershaw for giving up a dong in such a context. The fact that he made contact on the first pitch, worked a six-pitch at-bat, and then managed to connect on a two-strike curveball makes one stand up and take notice.
Kershaw sweated on each pitch. After fouling off a first-pitch fastball, Arenado got the calls on a sexy curveball low and outside and then a fastball low and in. A knee-breaking slider got Kershaw back in it, before Arenado fought off another fastball. Then, Uncle Charlie didn’t land in Yasmani Grandal’s glove.
It was a classic hanger, catching too much of the plate and not finishing just at the knees the way Kershaw wanted it. This wasn’t a Rich Hill-style lower arm slot that Kershaw had been trying out. This was just an old-fashioned mistake.
3. Saturday, April 8, @ Colorado Rockies
Mark Reynolds
Bottom of the 6th, 1 on, 1 out, 1-0
Four-Seam Fastball
EV: 103.1 mph
LA: 37.1 degrees
Kershaw notoriously goes middle-middle as much as anybody else. He almost never gets punished for it the way mere mortals do. As this series is hopefully revealing, however, hitters are deciding to get more aggressive earlier in the count against Kershaw. Reynolds took a slider in the dirt before teeing up a fastball on the very next pitch.
This wasn’t quite middle-middle, but once again, Kershaw caught a lot of the plate, whereas Grandal wanted the ball low and in. Reynolds didn’t bother waiting, and got the barrel out in front of it.
4. Saturday, April 8, @ Colorado Rockies
Gerardo Parra
Bottom of the 6th, 0 on, 1 out, 1-1
Four-Seam Fastball
EV: 100.8 mph
LA: 32.3 degrees
This game really ruined the bath I was taking at the time. Kershaw hadn’t allowed a three-homer game in four years. To add insult to injury, he gave up back-to-back dingers, one from each side of the plate. Parra fouled off a high fastball, watched a curveball bounce, and then unloaded on another fastball.
Another glove-side call, this one low and away to Parra. Instead, the pitch sits right in the heart of the zone. Kershaw made another mistake; once again, he didn’t get away with it.
5. Monday, May 1, vs. San Francisco Giants
Hunter Pence
Top of the 1st, 1 on, 1 out, 1-1
Curveball
EV: 102.1 mph
LA: 23.3 degrees
Kershaw staved off the home run bug for three weeks until dreaded rivals the Giants came to town. Pence, always an aggressive hitter, actually exhibited some patience with Kershaw, letting a first-pitch fastball miss its spot, and then taking a slider for a strike. Kershaw then made a mess of his third offering, the platonic ideal of a hanger.
Grandal wanted that at the knees on the outside corner. Kershaw wanted that at the knees on the outside corner. Pence wanted it where he got it, and took it for a ride.
6. Monday, May 1, vs. San Francisco Giants
Buster Posey
Top of the 3rd, 0 on, 2 out, 2-1
Slider
EV: 104.7 mph
LA: 25.4 degrees
Posey has had a resurgent offensive campaign this season, even as his defense deteriorates. In fact, he had hit two home runs off of Kershaw in his career up to that point, and a third would tie a career best against a single pitcher.
Posey has never been a power-and-patience-first guy, but he is efficient. He almost always walks as much or more than he strikes out. His contact rate carries enough power to always make the bat valuable. Here, he lets Kershaw’s curveball drop in low, then lets the fastball paint, then lets the slider drift low and outside. Kershaw now needs to get creative. He goes back to the slider, this time moving it low and in. Except that he leaves it up. Posey turns and rips it over the left field fence.
7. Saturday, May 6, @ San Diego Padres
Ryan Schimpf
Bottom of the 8th, 0 on, 0 out, 1-0
Slider
EV: 103 mph
LA: 30 degrees
Schimpf again. Kershaw was sweating a bit, having walked four but limiting damage. Schimpf came in to pinch hit, let a fastball miss inside, and then immediately gutted a slider for a moon shot.
It’s not a bad pitch, really. Kershaw kept the slider at the knees. It just didn’t bite enough, lingering over the middle of the plate. Schimpf has a golf swing, and so can unleash on such a pitch. You could see the result.
8. Sunday, May 28, vs. Chicago Cubs
Willson Contreras
Top of the 2nd, 0 on, 0 out, 3-2
Four-Seam Fastball
EV: 106 mph
LA: 23.6 degrees
Contreras declared open war on Kershaw in this at-bat. He worked 11—yes, 11—pitches before he finally got a four-seamer he could get ahold of.
Grandal calls for it inside, but Kershaw can’t stick the landing. It drifts all the way middle-out, right where Contreras’s barrel was going to finish.
9. Sunday, May 28, vs. Chicago Cubs
Javier Baez
Top of the 4th, 0 on, 1 out, 2-1
Four-Seam Fastball
EV: 105.1 mph
LA: 27.8 degrees
Another patient at-bat, another misplaced fastball. Kershaw once again wanted to work inside to a young Cubs righty, but this time, he misses high and over the plate. Báez’s all-or-nothing swing is a weakness when he doesn’t make contact; it’s deadly when he does.
10. Sunday, May 28, vs. Chicago Cubs
Anthony Rizzo
Top of the 4th, 1 on, 1 out, 1-0
Four-Seam Fastball
EV: 108.7 mph
LA: 31.7 degrees
Another day, another three-homer meltdown from Kershaw. Rizzo ripped his 1-0 fastball asunder as if it were personal. Rizzo may have hit from the other side than Contreras and Baez, but he did the same thing they did: capitalize on a leaky fastball meant to back him up inside.
11. Friday, June 2, @ Milwaukee Brewers
Domingo Santana
Bottom of the 7th, 0 on, 2 out, 1-0
Four-Seam Fastball
EV: 110.9 mph
LA: 26.4 degrees
If the homer hadn’t occurred, this would have been a practically unblemished gem from Kershaw. He fanned 14 while only giving up two basehits and a walk. Too bad the game was scoreless going into the seventh and Santana’s bomb forced the Dodgers to climb out of a hole. Like some of the early-season dingers Kershaw suffered, this one came on an aggressive Santana offering at the first pitch that looked good—in this case, yet another misplaced fastball Kershaw couldn’t get away with.
If the lyrics change, the song remains the same. Once again, the hitter doesn’t get fooled by the first-pitch slider that eats the dirt. Once again, Kershaw tries to come back into the strike zone low and in. Once again, he can’t keep the ball out of the middle of the zone. Once again, the hitter takes full advantage. You might only get one pitch against Kershaw all game. Hitters have been leaning into that fact this year.
12. Wednesday, June 7, vs. Washington Nationals
Ryan Zimmerman
Top of the 2nd, 0 on, 0 out, 0-0
Four-Seam Fastball
EV: 104.8 mph
LA: 24.9 degrees
Zimmerman wasted no time getting to Kershaw’s first pitch of the inning. This wasn’t a case of missed location, however; Zimmerman seemed to be sitting dead red, aggressive from the moment he stepped into the box. The pitch should have been low and in. The pitch was low and in. When a beat like Zimmerman decides to see ball, hit ball, what else can you do?
13. Tuesday, June 13, @ Cleveland
Roberto Perez
Bottom of the 5th, 0 on, 0 out, 3-2
Four-Seam Fastball
EV: 110.2 mph
LA: 20.8 degrees
What the hell to make of this? Perez’s picture appears next to “banjo hitter” in the dictionary. And yet here he is, working a full count to the second coming of Sandy Koufax, and then hitting the hardest home run off of Kershaw all season. They’re still trying to piece this ball back together in Cleveland.
Fastball. Grandal set up low and in. Ball finishes middle-middle. Well actually, the ball finishes in the left field bleachers. Granted, Kershaw couldn’t have served up a bigger meatball, but good lord, Roberto!
14. Monday, June 19, vs. New York Mets
Jose Reyes
Top of the 3rd, 0 on, 0 out, 0-0
Four-Seam Fastball
EV: 105.9 mph
LA: 19.8 degrees
And so begins The Long Night, which shall never be discussed among Dodgers fans again. Kershaw gave up four home runs in one game for the first time in his career. The Mets, in full crisis mode, cared not for the Dodgers’ 7-0 lead, and proceeded to hammer Kershaw over and over again. Reyes claimed first blood, continuing the aggressiveness trend and lasering the first pitch to left field.
Low and in target. Middle-middle finish. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.
15. Monday, June 19, vs. New York Mets
Jay Bruce
Top of the 4th, 0 on, 2 out, 0-2
Four-Seam Fastball
EV: 100.9 mphs
LA: 26.8 degrees
This time, Grandal and Kershaw go to the outside corner to see if they can ring Bruce up, or waste a pitch to get ready for one of the breaking balls. Kershaw misses again, and pays for it.
16. Monday, June 19, vs. New York Mets
Gavin Cecchini
Top of the 5th, 1 on, 1 out, 1-2
Curveball
EV: 103 mph
LA: 30 degrees
Give the kid props for chutzpah. Kershaw is about to drop Public Enemy No. 1 on you, and instead you turn it into your first major league dinger.
This is the first breaking ball to go over the fence in nearly two months. Kershaw’s fastball was getting drilled when it didn’t hit its spots, but his slider and curveball had returned to their normal nuclear levels. Not this time. Kershaw hung the curve, and Cecchini took it for a ride.
17. Monday, June 19, vs. New York Mets
Jose Reyes
Top of the 7th, 1 on, 1 out, 0-1
Curveball
EV: 100.5 mph
LA: 29.4 degrees
Reyes terminates the curveball with extreme prejudice. It’s not even that bad a pitch. Kershaw probably wanted a couple inches’ more drop, but it didn’t hang like the one Cecchini hit.
Kershaw’s night ended after that. He had given up at least one home run in five consecutive starts, another ignominious personal record to accompany the single-game high.
18. Sunday, July 9, vs. Kansas City Royals
Eric Hosmer
Top of the 4th, 1 on, 1 out, 2-0
Four-Seam Fastball
EV: 101.9 mph
LA: 28.7 degrees
This one, like the second Reyes dinger and the Zimmerman shot, feels slightly anomalous, mainly for what Kershaw had accomplished in his three previous starts. Not only had he not allowed a home run, but he mowed hitters down like his vintage self. Kershaw faced 74 hitters across 20 innings. He struck out 31 of them, and walked only five. Only one run crossed the plate. He wasn’t screwing around anymore.
And then Hosmer runs into one. Kershaw got behind by tossing two sliders that Hosmer wouldn’t bite on, and had to try and paint. Grandal sets up outside, but the ball moved across the plate inside. Hosmer stayed back on it, and took it the other way. It did barely scrape the fence, though. Fair play.
What have we learned here? For 11 straight weeks, hitters performed as poorly against Kershaw as they ever had, only this time, they weren’t letting mistakes go by. Guys swung early in the count, and laid off early-count breaking balls, too. When they would get something in the heart of the zone, they made Kershaw pay.
Now, why were they able to do this? Was it a matter of desperation? Maybe. Was it a better understanding of what Kershaw throws in counts? Tough to say, given the variety of counts in which the home runs were hit.
Maybe it’s also just a drop in command. By Baseball Prospectus’s Called Strikes Above Average metric—which controls for catcher, hitter, and umpire effects, and thus can serve as a proxy for command—Kershaw has been better than he has ever been with hitting spots. It could be that CSAA is missing something, since it only registers location on called pitches, rather than swinging strikes or contact.
It could also be a weird, surreal small sample. Kershaw has demonstrated a bullish tenacity in recovering from bad pitches, as he did after the first two months of 2015. Lots of “Is Max Scherzer the best” think pieces were being written then, too. Kershaw didn’t seem to care.
I’m inclined to believe in the weirdness theory. Pitchers have hard times sustaining home run suppression for more than a few years, and I can easily believe that, in the age of the juiced ball and the fly ball revolution, Kershaw is feeling the effects.
His home run rate is now below the league average for the first time all season though. His strikeout rate is back to where it should be. If there’s anyone who might surprise us in the final 10 weeks of the season, it’s the G.O.A.T.